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(American Journal of Botany. 2003;90:1333-1340.)
© 2003 Botanical Society of America, Inc.


Reproductive Biology

Natural selection on floral traits of Lobelia (Lobeliaceae): spatial and temporal variation1

Christina M. Caruso2,4, S. Brook Peterson3,5 and Caroline E. Ridley3,6

2Departments of Biology and Mathematics, Grinnell College, Grinnell, Iowa 50112 USA; 3Department of Biology, Grinnell College, Grinnell, Iowa 50112 USA

Received for publication December 17, 2002. Accepted for publication April 24, 2003.


    ABSTRACT
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 LITERATURE CITED
 
The strength and direction of natural selection on floral traits can vary spatially and temporally because of variation in the biotic and abiotic environment. High spatial variation in selection should lead to differentiation of floral traits among populations. In contrast, high temporal variation in selection should retard the evolution of population-specific floral phenotypes. To determine the relative importance of spatial vs. temporal variation in natural selection, we measured phenotypic selection on seven floral traits of the wildflowers Lobelia cardinalis and L. siphilitica in 1999 and 2000. Lobelia cardinalis experienced significant temporal variation in selection, whereas L. siphilitica experienced spatial variation in selection on the same traits. This variation in selection on floral traits was associated with spatial and temporal differences in the soil microenvironment. Although few studies of natural selection include spatial or temporal replicates, our results suggest that such replication is critical for understanding the distribution of phenotypes in nature.

Key Words: Lobelia cardinalisLobelia siphilitica • Lobeliaceae • natural selection • phenotypic selection • pollination • spatial variation • temporal variation


    INTRODUCTION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 LITERATURE CITED
 
An organism's phenotype and its environment are often correlated, suggesting that natural selection is a primary mechanism responsible for the evolution of diversity in natural populations (e.g., Endler, 1986 ). Within a species, variation in the biotic and abiotic environment may result in spatial or temporal variation in the strength and direction of natural selection. All things being equal, these patterns of variation in selection will have strikingly different consequences for the evolution of phenotypic diversity in natural populations. In the absence of plasticity, variation in selection among populations should lead to genetically based phenotypic differences in the trait under selection. In contrast, high temporal variation in selection should prevent this genetic differentiation (e.g., Levins, 1968 ; Bell, 1997 ; Reboud and Bell, 1997 ). As such, determining the relative importance of spatial vs. temporal variation in natural selection is essential for making testable predictions about the distribution of phenotypes across natural populations. Any difference between predicted and observed phenotypes suggests that adaptive evolution is constrained or that other mechanisms of evolution, such as gene flow or drift, are operating.

The great diversity of floral displays in nature makes these traits one of the model systems for studying adaptive evolution. Although natural selection has been measured for floral traits of many species, significant spatial variation (Gilbert et al., 1996 ; O'Connell and Johnston, 1998 ; Caruso, 2000 , 2001 ; Totland, 2001 ) and temporal variation (Schemske and Horvitz, 1989 ; Campbell, 1991 ; Gross et al., 1998 ; Maad, 2000 ) in selection has been documented in relatively few systems. The ecological causes of this variation are rarely well studied (but see Caruso, 2000 ; Totland, 2001 ), but generally involve indirect effects of the biotic or abiotic environment on plant–pollinator interactions. For example, Totland (2001) found that altitudinal differences in selection on floral traits of Ranunculus acris were caused by differences in temperature, which influenced both pollinator behavior and seed set.

The goals of our study were to characterize spatial and temporal variation in selection on floral traits and to explore potential ecological causes of this variation, using the temperate wildflowers Lobelia cardinalis L. and L. siphilitica L. as a study system. Significant natural selection on floral traits has been documented in natural populations of L. cardinalis and L. siphilitica (Johnston, 1991a ). There are anecdotal reports of variation in the abiotic soil and light environment among conspecific populations of both species (Johnston, 1991a ; Pigliucci and Schlichting, 1995 ; Pigliucci et al., 1997 ). Johnston (1991a) also noted variation among L. cardinalis populations in the presence of coflowering Impatiens capensis, a component of the biotic environment. We studied natural populations of L. cardinalis and L. siphilitica to answer the following questions: (1) What is the relative importance of spatial vs. temporal variation in phenotypic selection on floral traits of L. cardinalis and L. siphilitica? (2) Is spatial and temporal variation in the abiotic soil microenvironment associated with variation in selection on Lobelia?


    MATERIALS AND METHODS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 LITERATURE CITED
 
Study species and sites
Lobelia cardinalis and L. siphilitica (Lobeliaceae) are closely related (E. B. Knox and A. M. Muasya, Rutgers University, personal communication), short-lived, herbaceous perennial wildflowers with contrasting floral morphologies (Johnston, 1991a and references therein). Lobelia cardinalis has 4-cm-long red flowers (Fig. 1A) pollinated by ruby-throated hummingbirds (Archilochus colubris) throughout eastern North America (Baker, 1975 ; Bertin, 1982 ). In contrast, L. siphilitica has 3-cm-long blue flowers (Fig. 1B) pollinated by Bombus spp. (Beaudoin Yetter, 1989 ). Flowers of both species are protandrous, and pollen is shed from a tube formed by the fused anthers and filaments (Johnston, 1991a ). Both L. cardinalis and L. siphilitica are self-compatible (Johnston, 1992 ), but the complete separation between staminate and pistillate phases of flower development ensures that self-fertilization is the result of geitonogamy rather than autogamy (Johnston, 1991b ). Although L. siphilitica can be gynodioecious (Beaudoin Yetter, 1989 ), females were very rare in our study populations (1–9%; C. M. Caruso, unpublished data).



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Fig. 1. Flowers of (A) Lobelia cardinalis and (B) L. siphilitica showing the six aspects on floral morphology examined in this study. Lobelia cardinalis is shown from the front and side, whereas front and top views of L. siphilitica are shown. Drawings are not to scale

 
We measured phenotypic selection on floral traits of plants from three L. cardinalis and three L. siphilitica populations. The L. cardinalis populations (Airport, Chichaqua Bottoms [CB], and Ditch) were located in the Chichaqua Bottoms Greenbelt, Polk County, Iowa, USA. The L. siphilitica populations (Conard Environmental Research Area [CERA], Krumm, and Reichelt) were located in Jasper County, Iowa, USA (Table 1). All populations contained >500 Lobelia plants and were separated from each other by a minimum of 4 km. Selection was measured on plants in CB, CERA, and Krumm in both 1999 and 2000. The other populations were studied only in 2000.


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Table 1. Location of the six Lobelia study populations

 
Data collection
Natural selection
One hundred and forty (in 1999) and 100 (in 2000) Lobelia plants per population were haphazardly chosen for inclusion in the study. Because many plants were clipped or destroyed by herbivores, the final sample size in each population was reduced by as much as 50%. When feasible, plants were chosen before bud break so that the sample would not be biased towards any floral trait. Lobelia cardinalis (Devlin, 1989 ) and L. siphilitica (Beaudoin Yetter, 1989 ) can produce clonal offshoots, but we attempted to include only one ramet per genet in the sample from each population. In addition, because both species are short-lived perennials, some genets may have been included in the sample in both 1999 and 2000. However, the location of the densest aggregation of flowering individuals within each population varied between years (C. M. Caruso, personal observation), which should minimize the possibility of resampling genets.

We measured six floral traits on each plant: corolla lobe length, corolla lobe width, corolla tube length, corolla tube width, stigma–nectary distance, and total flower number (Fig. 1). Floral morphology was measured for 10 (in 1999) or five (in 2000) flowers per plant using hand-held digital calipers. On the same day that floral morphology was measured, we estimated total flower number as the sum of the senescent flowers, open flowers, and unopened buds on each plant. An additional floral trait (stigma exsertion) was estimated by subtracting corolla length from stigma–nectary distance (Fig. 1). Stigma–nectary distance was measured because it was under significant selection in Michigan populations of Lobelia (Johnston, 1991a ). The other six floral traits were measured because they were under significant selection in other plant species (e.g., Campbell, 1991 ; Conner et al., 1996 ; Caruso, 2000 ). Female fitness was estimated for each plant as the number of fruits per plant, which is a good predictor of total seed production in Lobelia (Johnston, 1991b ). Plants that did not produce any fruit were included in all analyses. Supplemental hand-pollination increases the number of fruits per plant in both L. cardinalis and L. siphilitica (Johnston, 1991b ), indicating that variation in fruit set among individuals could reflect variation in pollination.

Abiotic environment
We used time domain reflectometry to measure the volumetric water content (VWC) of the soil at each study population on five dates between 23 September 2000 and 25 July 2001. The VWC was estimated at 14–39 haphazardly chosen points in each population using a CS620 handheld water content sensor (Campbell Scientific, Logan, Utah, USA). Most soils are saturated at a VWC of 50% (Jackson et al., 2000 ).

Data analysis
Fitness measures and floral traits
To determine if fitness measures or floral traits differed among conspecific populations measured in 2000, we used one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with population as the independent variable. Data from each species were analyzed using separate ANOVAs. When the ANOVA was significant, we used Tukey's HSD test to detect pairwise differences between populations. Differences in fitness measures or floral traits between (1) years in CB and (2) CERA and Krumm in 1999 were determined using a t test. The assumptions of normality and homogeneity of variance for all t tests and ANOVAs presented in this paper were tested using Lilliefors' (Wilkinson, 1997 ) and Levene's (Underwood, 1997 ) tests, respectively.

Directional selection
We estimated phenotypic selection for each floral trait, population, and year. Based on the guideline that sample size should be at least 10x the number of independent variables in a multiple regression (Mitchell, 2001 ), the sample sizes in CB, Krumm, and Reichelt in 2000 were inadequate to estimate selection gradients by including all floral traits in a single model. We instead calculated standardized directional selection gradients for all traits except flower number using a series of multiple regression models that each included two independent variables: flower number and one other floral trait. Standardized directional selection differentials were calculated for flower number using univariate regression (Conner, 1988 ). We relativized fitness by dividing by mean fitness (Lande and Arnold, 1983 ) and standardized each floral trait to a mean = 0 and variance = 1 (Sokal and Rohlf, 1995 ). Fitness measures were relativized and floral traits standardized separately for each population and year. We present P values for the selection differentials and gradients both before and after applying the Dunn-Sidak correction (Sokal and Rohlf, 1995 ) for multiple tests within each combination of population and year.

The assumption of normality of residual variance was tested using Lilliefors' test (Wilkinson, 1997 ). We tested the assumption of homogeneity of residual variance by calculating the Spearman rank correlation between the residuals and relative fitness (Neter et al., 1990 ). If the correlation was significant (P < 0.05), we rejected the assumption of homogeneity. We used these methods to test the assumptions of all regression models described in this paper. When necessary, we log-transformed relative fitness to meet the assumptions of regression. A selection differential or gradient calculated using transformed relative fitness is no longer an unbiased point estimate (Lande and Arnold, 1983 ). As such, when transformation was necessary, we present the selection differential or gradient from the untransformed model but the P value from the transformed model (Mitchell-Olds and Shaw, 1987 ).

We corrected estimates of phenotypic selection for flower number (as in Morgan and Schoen, 1997 ; Caruso 2000 , 2001 ) because of this trait's overwhelming importance for fitness. In most plant species, including L. cardinalis and L. siphilitica, flower number accounts for a significant amount of the variation in fitness (e.g., Johnston, 1991a ; Conner et al., 1996 ; Caruso, 2000 ). Correcting estimates of phenotypic selection for flower number is advantageous for two reasons. First, when flower number is included in the model, the variation attributable to this trait is removed from the error term, increasing the power to detect selection. Second, selection for flower number in L. cardinalis and L. siphilitica is consistently stronger than selection for any other trait (Table 2). This selection for flower number could result in strong indirect selection on correlated floral traits. Correcting estimates of phenotypic selection for flower number allows direct selection on floral morphology to be partitioned out from indirect selection via flower number.


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Table 2. Standardized directional selection (coefficients with 1 SE in parentheses) for seven floral traits in three Lobelia cardinalis and three L. siphilitica populations measured in 2000. Directional selection differentials were calculated for flower number. Estimates of directional selection for all other floral traits were corrected for flower number and are thus selection gradients. Asterisks indicate whether selection was significantly different from zero. F tests are from an ANCOVA and indicate whether selection differed significantly among conspecific populations

 
Comparing selection between populations and years
We used analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) to determine if the strength of phenotypic selection differed between conspecific populations or years (as in Conner, 1989 ; Dudley, 1996 ; Gilbert et al., 1996 ; Caruso, 2000 , 2001 ). ANCOVA is the standard method for testing differences in regression coefficients between groups (Sokal and Rohlf, 1995 ; Zar, 1999 ). By incorporating both population-specific selection estimates and the variation around these estimates, this analysis is also considered to be a powerful method for detecting differences in selection.

To detect differences in selection among conspecific populations measured in 2000, separate ANCOVA models were constructed for each species. These models included continuous terms for floral traits, a categorical term coding for population, and floral trait x population terms. The floral trait x population term, if significant, indicates that selection varied spatially.

To detect temporal variation in selection in the CB population, we constructed an ANCOVA model that included a continuous term for the floral trait, a categorical term coding for year, and a floral trait x year term. The floral trait x year term, if significant, indicates that selection varied temporally.

ANCOVA was also used to simultaneously test for spatial and temporal variation in selection on L. siphilitica. The model included a continuous term for the floral trait, categorical terms coding for population and year, and floral trait x categorical factor terms. The floral trait x population term, if significant, indicates that selection varied spatially. The floral trait x year term, if significant, indicates that selection varied temporally. Only L. siphilitica populations that were measured in both 1999 and 2000 were included in the analysis.

Abiotic environment
We used repeated-measures ANOVA to compare soil volumetric water content between L. cardinalis and L. siphilitica populations. In this analysis, species was the between-subjects factor and measurement date was the within-subjects factor.


    RESULTS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 LITERATURE CITED
 
Selection on Lobelia: general patterns
There was significant positive directional selection on corolla lobe length, corolla lobe width, corolla tube length, stigma–nectary distance, and flower number of L. cardinalis. Only flower number and corolla tube length were under significant directional selection in all L. cardinalis populations. All floral traits except corolla lobe width and corolla tube width were under significant selection in L. siphilitica. Almost half of the selection estimates were negative (i.e., selection for smaller trait values), although only a few of these were significantly different from zero. Only flower number was under significant directional selection in all L. siphilitica populations (Table 2).

Spatial variation in selection
Selection on floral morphology did not differ among L. cardinalis populations measured in 2000 (Table 2), although the means for these traits did vary. Corolla lobe length, corolla lobe width, corolla tube length, stigma–nectary distance, and stigma exsertion were all greater in Airport than in CB or Ditch. Plants in Ditch had the widest corollas, followed by those in Airport and CB (Table 3). In contrast to selection on floral morphology, directional selection on flower number did vary among L. cardinalis populations measured in 2000 (Table 2).


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Table 3. Seven floral traits and one fitness measure in three Lobelia cardinalis and three L. siphilitica populations measured in 2000 (mean ± 1 SE). Contrasting superscripts indicate that a measure differed significantly (P < 0.05) from conspecific populations

 
Selection on corolla lobe length and corolla tube length differed significantly among L. siphilitica populations measured in 2000, with stronger and more positive selection in Krumm than in CERA or Reichelt (Table 2). Consistent with these differences in selection, corolla tubes were significantly longer in Krumm than in CERA or Reichelt. In contrast, variation in corolla lobe length among populations was not consistent with differences in natural selection. Instead, plants in both CERA and Krumm had longer corolla lobes than those in Reichelt (Table 3).

When we analyzed data from multiple years and populations, we could only detect spatial variation in selection on floral morphology of L. siphilitica. Selection on corolla lobe length (ANCOVA; F1,315 = 9.19, P = 0.003; Fig. 2A), corolla lobe width (F1,315 = 4.58, P = 0.033; Fig. 2B), corolla tube length (F1,315 = 6.42, P = 0.012; Fig. 2C), and stigma–nectary distance (F1,315 = 4.99, P = 0.026; Fig. 2D) differed significantly between CERA and Krumm. Plants with longer and wider corolla lobes, longer corolla tubes, and greater stigma–nectary distance produced more fruits, but only in Krumm. Selection on these traits in CERA was nonsignificant or significantly negative (Fig. 2). With two exceptions (corolla tubes, which were significantly longer in Krumm in 2000 [Table 3], and corolla lobes, which were significantly wider in Krumm in 1999 [Table 4]), comparisons of mean floral traits between populations provide no evidence that differences in selection between CERA and Krumm resulted in character displacement. In contrast to floral morphology, selection on flower number was stronger in CERA than in Krumm (F1,318 = 58.25, P < 0.001).



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Fig. 2. Standardized directional selection (coefficients ± 1 SE) on corolla lobe length (A), corolla lobe width (B), corolla tube length (C), stigma-nectary distance (D), and flower number (E) of Lobelia siphilitica in two populations (CERA and Krumm) and two years (1999 and 2000). Directional selection differentials were calculated for flower number. Estimates of directional selection for all other floral traits were corrected for flower number and are thus selection gradients. Asterisks indicate whether selection was significantly different from zero. Selection on all traits was significantly stronger in Krumm relative to CERA (see Results for details). * P < 0.05; ** P < 0.01; *** P < 0.001. {dagger} Remained significant after Dunn-Sidak correction

 

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Table 4. Seven floral traits and one fitness measure in one Lobelia cardinalis and two L. siphilitica populations measured in 1999 (means ± 1 SE). Contrasting superscripts indicate that a measure differed significantly (P < 0.05) between CERA and Krumm

 
Temporal variation in selection
There was selection for more and larger L. cardinalis flowers in CB, but the strength of this selection differed between years. Selection on corolla lobe length (ANCOVA; F1,204 = 8.69, P = 0.004; Fig. 3A), corolla tube length (F1,209 = 7.84, P = 0.006; Fig. 3B), and flower number (F1,211 = 96.30, P < 0.001; Fig. 3C) was significantly stronger in 2000 than 1999. In contrast to these differences in selection, plants in CB produced smaller and fewer flowers in 2000. Corolla lobes were 7% longer (separate variance t test; t = 5.00, df = 211.1, P < 0.001) and wider (t = 3.92, df = 213.8, P < 0.001) in 1999 than 2000. In 1999, corolla tubes were 9% longer (t = 8.19, df = 195.1, P < 0.001) and stigma–nectary distance was 4% greater (t = 4.26, df = 202.5, P < 0.001). Lobelia cardinalis in CB also produced 22% more flowers (t = 2.33, df = 225.8, P = 0.020) and 150% more fruits (t = 7.88, df = 212.8, P < 0.001) in 1999 (Tables 3 and 4).



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Fig. 3. Standardized directional selection (coefficients ± 1 SE) on corolla lobe length (A), corolla tube length (B), and flower number (C) of Lobelia cardinalis growing in the CB population in 1999 and 2000. Directional selection differentials were calculated for flower number. Estimates of directional selection for all other floral traits were corrected for flower number and are thus selection gradients. Asterisks indicate whether selection was significantly different from zero. Selection on all three traits was significantly stronger in 2000 (see Results for details). * P < 0.05; ** P < 0.01; *** P < 0.001. {dagger} Remained significant after Dunn-Sidak correction

 
When we analyzed data from multiple years, selection on floral morphology of L. siphilitica did not vary temporally (all P > 0.05; Fig. 2A–D). In contrast, selection on flower number was significantly stronger in 1999 relative to 2000 (F1,318 = 49.45, P < 0.001; Fig. 2E).

Abiotic environment
Volumetric soil water content (VWC) was higher in L. cardinalis than L. siphilitica populations (Fig. 4). Averaged across dates, VWC was twice as high in L. cardinalis populations (repeated-measures ANOVA; F1,4 = 27.37, P = 0.006). In addition, there were significant effects of sampling date (F1,4 = 17.37, P = 0.000) and species x sampling date (F1,4 = 7.52, P = 0.001) on VWC.



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Fig. 4. Volumetric soil water content (means ± 1 SE) for three Lobelia cardinalis (closed symbols) and three L. siphilitica (open symbols) populations on five dates. N = 14–34 for each combination of population and date. Lines represent mean soil water content for the L. cardinalis (solid line) and L. siphilitica (dotted line) populations

 

    DISCUSSION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 LITERATURE CITED
 
Natural selection on floral traits of Lobelia varied both spatially and temporally, but the relative importance of these sources of variation differed between species. Floral traits of L. siphilitica primarily experienced spatial variation in selection. For example, selection on corolla lobe and corolla tube length differed significantly among the CERA, Krumm, and Reichelt populations in 2000 (Table 2). When we analyzed only the populations measured in both 1999 and 2000, selection on five traits (corolla lobe length, corolla lobe width, corolla tube length, stigma–nectary distance, and flower number) differed between populations, whereas only flower number experienced temporal variation in selection (Fig. 2). In contrast, variation in selection on floral traits of L. cardinalis was primarily temporal. With the exception of flower number, selection did not differ among the Airport, CB, and Ditch populations in 2000 (Table 2). However, selection on corolla lobe length, corolla tube length, and flower number differed between years in CB (Fig. 3).

Although further manipulative experiments would be needed to determine the ecological causes of this variation in selection on floral traits of Lobelia, differences in soil moisture among populations could be an important factor. Lobelia siphilitica may experience greater spatial variation in selection than L. cardinalis (Table 2; Fig. 2) because it occupies a greater variety of moisture environments. All L. cardinalis populations occurred in soils with >50% VWC, where the soil was saturated (Jackson et al., 2000 ) and standing water was common (C. M. Caruso, personal observation). In contrast, L. siphilitica populations occupied a greater variety of habitats, from the same saturated soils as L. cardinalis to dry soils that are virtually never saturated (Fig. 4). When data were pooled across populations, coefficients of variation for VWC were greater for L. siphilitica (CV = 42.89%) than L. cardinalis (CV = 31.75%; F435, 391 = 1.43; P < 0.05; Zar, 1999 ), as would be expected if L. siphilitica has a greater ecological breadth.

The stronger selection on L. cardinalis in 2000 vs. 1999 may also be associated with variation in soil water availability. The year 1999 was a much wetter year than 2000; 52% more precipitation fell in central Iowa in the 12 mo (November–October) preceding the end of the 1999 flowering season relative to 2000 (data from Todey, 2002 ). Temporal variation in selection on floral traits of another species, Platanthera bifolia, has been attributed to variation in rainfall; nectar spurs of P. bifolia were shorter in drier years, but the length of the pollinating hawk moth's proboscis was unchanged, resulting in stronger selection for longer spurs in dry years (Maad, 2000 ). The stronger selection on L. cardinalis in 2000 could be the result of a similar mismatch between plant and pollinator. Plants in the CB population produced smaller flowers in 2000 (Tables 34), the same year in which there was significantly stronger selection for larger flowers (Fig. 3).

Based on the observed patterns of spatial vs. temporal variation in selection, we predict that L. siphilitica populations should exhibit genetically based differences in floral traits. However, the dimensions of L. siphilitica flowers (Tables 3 and 4) could not be predicted from patterns of selection on floral traits (Table 2; Fig. 2), suggesting that spatial variation in selection on this species has not led to significant phenotypic differentiation. For example, selection on corolla lobe length was stronger in Krumm than in CERA in both 1999 and 2000 (Fig. 2A), but corolla lobes were not significantly longer in Krumm (Tables 3 and 4).

The lack of significant phenotypic differentiation of L. siphilitica in response to spatial variation in selection on floral traits could be the result of the plant's perennial life history, undetected temporal variation in selection, the genetic architecture of floral traits, selection via other fitness components, or gene flow. Our estimates of natural selection for L. siphilitica could be inaccurate because they are based on only a single episode of reproduction in a short-lived perennial species, not lifetime reproductive success (Endler, 1986 ). Although we detected little temporal variation in selection on floral traits of L. siphilitica, our data set spanned only 2 yr (1999 and 2000). However, precipitation differed strikingly between these years, indicating that we captured a representative sample of meteorological variation (see earlier data from Todey [2002] ). Negative genetic correlations between flower size and number may constrain the evolution of floral traits in both CERA and Krumm (C. M. Caruso, unpublished data), preventing any adaptive differentiation of floral displays. The combination of positive directional selection on floral traits of L. siphilitica via fruit set and negative selection on these traits via another fitness measure could impede phenotypic differentiation among populations. Although we cannot test this hypothesis for L. siphilitica in the present study, contrasting selection via different fitness components on the same floral trait has been documented in other species (e.g., Solanum carolinense; Elle, 1999 ; Elle and Meagher, 2000 ). Gene flow between L. siphilitica populations that experience contrasting selective pressures could impede any phenotypic differentiation of floral traits in response to selection (e.g., Endler, 1979 ). Because we have not estimated pollen and seed dispersal distances for L. siphilitica, we cannot directly test this hypothesis. However, CERA and Krumm were adjacent to unmeasured L. siphilitica populations (C. M. Caruso, personal observation), suggesting that interpopulation gene flow could occur.

The occurrence of temporal, but not spatial, variation in selection on floral traits of L. cardinalis leads to the prediction that populations of this species should not differ in floral phenotype. Our results provide partial support for this prediction, as only one of six measures of floral morphology differed between CB and Ditch (Table 3). In contrast, plants in the Airport population had consistently larger flowers than those in CB or Ditch (Table 3), which is not consistent with the prediction of a similar phenotype across populations. However, these comparisons may be biased by interpopulation variation in the physical environment. The soils at Airport contain significantly more phosphorus, potassium, and nitrate than at other L. cardinalis populations (C. M. Caruso, unpublished data). In addition, Airport was the only population that occurred under a forest canopy (C. M. Caruso, personal observation). Atmospheric evaporative demand is typically lower under forest canopies than in open areas (Maherali et al., 1997 ), suggesting that transpirational water loss is lower in the Airport population. Because both improved plant water status (Carroll et al., 2001 ; Elle and Hare, 2002 ) and nutrient addition (e.g., Higaki et al., 1992 ) can positively influence flower size, the larger flowers in the Airport population may reflect differences in microclimate rather than interpopulation genetic differentiation.

Although L. cardinalis and L. siphilitica are closely related, we documented striking interspecific differences in the pattern of variation in selection on floral traits. Lobelia cardinalis experienced significant temporal variation in selection (Fig. 3), whereas L. siphilitica experienced spatial variation in selection on the same traits (Table 2; Fig. 2). Our data suggest (1) that soil water availability is a potential ecological cause of this variation in selection and (2) that temporal variation in selection has impeded the differentiation of floral phenotypes among L. cardinalis populations. More generally, our results highlight the importance of estimating temporal and spatial variation in natural selection. Although estimates of natural selection have been made for many species, the median number of spatial and temporal replicates in any given study is one (Kingsolver et al., 2001 ). Given the potentially contrasting effects of spatial and temporal variation on patterns of phenotypic evolution, such replication is critical for understanding the distribution of phenotypes in nature.


    FOOTNOTES
 
1 The authors thank H. Maherali, J. Willis, the Willis lab group, and an anonymous reviewer for comments on earlier versions of this manuscript; L. Lown (Polk County Conservation Board) and D. Black (Jasper County Conservation Board) for permission to work on public land; H. Maherali, K. Carlson, and A. Mikulyuk for their assistance in the field; and S. Ventis for the drawings for Fig. 1 . This work was supported by a National Science Foundation AIRE grant (awarded to Grinnell College) and the Grinnell College Biology Department. During the writing of this manuscript, C. M. Caruso was supported by a Postdoctoral Research Leave Fellowship from the American Association of University Women. Back

4 Current address: Department of Botany, University of Guelph, Axelrod Building, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1 Canada, (phone: 519-824-4120 ext. 52030; FAX: 519-767-1991; carusoc{at}uoguelph.ca ) Back

5 Current address: Microbiology Doctoral Training Program, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA Back

6 Current address: Department of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California-Riverside, Riverside, California 92521 USA Back


    LITERATURE CITED
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 LITERATURE CITED
 
Baker H. G. 1975 Sugar concentrations in nectars from hummingbird flowers. Biotropica 7: 37-41[CrossRef]

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